JKVINEs New Technology Provides Insight into the US Presidential Debates and Election Result

JKVINE_New MediaSmartz

Democratic U.S. presidential candidate former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks during the first official Democratic candidates debate of the 2016 presidential campaign in Las Vegas, Nevada October 13, 2015. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson - RTS4CTY
Democratic U.S. presidential candidate former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks during the first official Democratic candidates debate of the 2016 presidential campaign in Las Vegas, Nevada October 13, 2015. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson – RTS4CTY

Well it has been an interesting few weeks, with the US Presidential Debates dominating media attention. The 3 debates conducted on September 26th, October 9th and October 19th 2016, provided not only interesting and entertaining television viewing but some great insight in to the figure heads representing the 2 major political power parties in US, being the Republicans and Democrats.

The first debate set the record for the most watched debate in US history capturing 84 million viewers.

rep_dem_us

Now, more so than in any recent time in history, is a time for an influential powerful and ethical leader to propel the US and the world into the future. The US is still the most military dominate superpower in the world and its history of economic influence has impacts that touch the globe all over.  Global recession, prominent technologic disruptors, border insecurity Pakistan, India, Syria, North Korea, BRExit and more, mean the next leader of the US has to steer the country through some rough waters without causing damage.

There is so much to say about this election, the candidates and the debates, but we will leave that for the political journalists whom all will have their view and opinion, which is just that. At JKVINE, we are applying technology to these much coveted events, by trawling data relevant to the the debates conducted so far, to provide real time public opinion and insight analysis. Although it is technology, it does provide real emotional analysis of the candidates and topics debated as seen by the mass public.

Tweeter feed volumes for the 3 debates were averaging around the 3 million mark for each debate.

MediaSmartz

US Presidential Debate Night 1 – JKVINE introduces its latest technology MediaSmartz

US Presidential Debate Night 2 – JKVINEs MediaSMartz Interprets 2nd Debate

US Presidential Debate Night 3 – JKVINEs MediaSMartz Interprets 3rd Debate

The technology developed, labelled MediaSmartz, has trawled the available data which has been tweeted from around the world. It utilises a data harvester to do this, it then invokes some sentiment analysis and then applies some smart statistical algorithms to generate its public emotions output.

It all sounds wonderful doesn’t it? But how does it help anyone? Well, by dissecting and analysing mass public opinion, through the form of tweets, we are arguably gaining the best insight into these 2 candidates. Ultimately from the topics discussed over the last debate, we are probably the best positioned to give an election result. Public opinion is what we are analysing and it is the public that will determine the result of this election.

So, lets summarise the findings and outputs from this latest technology.

Firstly, lets say, the immediate standout from all the analysis done on the public tweeter feeds, is that the debates have been very closely and evenly supported across both presidential candidates. There has been no standout winner from the analysis done, but very marginal wins based on some topics which were clear winners.

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Lets look more closely at those topics. In the first debate, Trump had some surprisingly strong support on the topics of women and inequality. He had further strong support in the areas of trade. Clinton on the other hand had strong support on the topics of ISIS, Race and Jobs. A closer look at the radar graphs in the associated links provides further synopsis of sentiment on each topic.

Lets move to the 2nd debate, where the gloves really did come off in terms of the nature in which the debate was conducted. More personal attacks were made in this debate and was evident in the mainly negative sentiment spread over both Clinton and Trump.

trumpvclinton

The topics of discussion on this night led to an almost neutral victory for both the Republican and Democrat, based on the public feedback. Only 2 topics had marginal debate winners being the topic of ISIS again being positive for Clinton and jobs for Trump.

Moving to debate night 3 , we can see that this night received far more positive sentiment than negative. This is in direct contrast to debate night 2. What was also evident for debate night 3 was that it was fairly even, with no real winner. This conflicts with other media analysis conducted which was suggesting Clinton won this debate by a landslide, not according to MediaSmartz.

Election Prediction

Well, it seems alot of polls and other odds trackers are predicting a fairly hefty win to Democrat Hillary Clinton. What is obvious from the JKVine media analysing platform, is that the result will be alot more closer than is being predicted elsewhere.

MediaSmartz is operating over tweets analysed. approximately 3 million on each debate. Unless the demographic for tweeters is far different from the rest of the US population, which maybe slightly possible, we can draw some conclusions.

Based, on the tweet analysis we see that the result will be very close with  a very slight edge towards Clinton.

 

1 thought on “JKVINEs New Technology Provides Insight into the US Presidential Debates and Election Result”

  1. Interesting to note that Trump received 52% of the female vote and that the MediaSmartz analysis showed surprisingly strong support for Trump on women and equality.

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